Visitors Out! The Absence of Away Team Supporters as a Source of Home Advantage in Football

Abstract

Objective: This study investigates the distinct impacts of home and away fans on home advantage (HA) in football, using a natural experiment in Argentinean football. Since 2013, away fans have been banned due to violence, and during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, all fans were excluded. Method: We analyzed 7261 top-tier Argentinean matches from 2003 to 2022, covering periods with full attendance, home-only fans, and no fans. Using linear and logistic regressions, we assess the effects of different crowd conditions on goal differentials and win probabilities, controlling for team and season. Subgroup analyses compare traditionally strong teams to others. Results: The absence of away fans had a minor, statistically insignificant effect on HA overall, though the top five teams saw a brief increase after the ban. In contrast, the absence of home fans during COVID-19 significantly reduced HA for all teams. Not-top five teams often faced a home disadvantage. HA rebounded sharply for the top five teams once home fans returned. Conclusion: Home fans significantly influence HA, while away fans have negligible impact. Local support is particularly crucial for less dominant teams, with implications for crowd management, match planning, and broadcasting in professional football.