Present-day land subsidence risk in the metropolitan cities of Italy

Abstract

Land subsidence affects many world metropolises, impacting their infrastructure and population. This work showcases an innovative methodology for exposure-vulnerability rating, hazard quantification and risk assessment that integrates remotely sensed information on ground displacement, land cover and settlement characteristics. Land subsidence-induced deformation and structural stress are quantified within the 15 metropolitan cities of Italy, along with the amount of residential/non-residential infrastructure and population exposed. A total of 1.44 out of 2665 km2 urbanised land within the 15 cities is at high risk due to significant angular distortions (and, sometimes, additive threat from horizontal strain) affecting very high exposure-vulnerability infrastructure; for more than 2700 buildings there is high likelihood of already occurred/incipient structural damage. This reference knowledge-base on present-day subsidence-induced risk can inform land and risk management at national scale, and provides a baseline for future assessments to build upon with a look to the next decades and sustainable urban development.