Magnitude and nucleation time of the 2017 Pohang Earthquake point to its predictable artificial triggering

Abstract

A damaging Mw5.5 earthquake occurred at Pohang, South Korea, in 2017, after stimulating an enhanced geothermal system by borehole fluid injections. The earthquake was likely triggered by these operations. Current approaches for predicting maximum induced earthquake magnitude (Mmax) consider the volume of the injected fluid as the main controlling factor. However, these approaches are unsuccessful in predicting earthquakes, such as the Pohang one. Here we analyse the case histories of induced earthquakes, and find that Mmax scales with the logarithm of the elapsed time from the beginning of the fluid injection to the earthquake occurrence. This is also the case for the Pohang Earthquake. Its significant probability was predictable. These results validate an alternative to predicting Mmax. It is to monitor the exceedance probability of an assumed Mmax in real time by monitoring the seismogenic index, a quantity that characterizes the intensity of the fluid-induced seismicity per unit injected volume.