Will dry events occur more often in Hungary in the future?

Abstract

Dry years and dry summers in Hungary have been analyzed using the regional climate model REMO for the time periods 1961-2000 and 2001-2100. Dry periods were determined and classified by intensity, considering modeled and observed precipitation and temperature data. The intensity of dry events was defined according to the negative precipitation deviation and positive temperature deviation from the climate period 1961-90. The proportion of dry years and dry summers is equivalent in the model and observations in the past. On average, the intensity of dry years simulated by the regional climate model REMO is the same as observed, whereas dry summers have more extreme conditions in the model. Based on the results of three IPCC scenario simulations (B1, A1B, A2), the probability of dry events will be higher in the second half of the 21st century. In the scenarios A1B and A2 a dry summer may happen every second year and the consecutive dry periods will last longer. For 2051-2100 the intensity of dry events increases significantly in all scenarios compared to the control period. From the analyzed scenarios B1 has the lowest future greenhouse gas emission rates, so that the smallest changes are also projected for the second half of the 21st century. © IOP Publishing Ltd.