Impacts of climate changes on risk zoning for cowpea in the Amazonian tropical conditions

Abstract

The climate risk zoning was carried out for cowpea cultivated in northeastern Amazonia, Pará state, Brazil. Système d’Analyse Régionale des Risques Agroclimatologiques (SARRA) crop model was used and calibrated from data obtained in field experiments conducted between 2013 and 2016 in Castanhal, state of Pará. Low climate risk areas were defined as those with water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) greater than or equal to 0.5 during flowering and early grain development and less than 20 mm of total rainfall during grain maturation and harvest for at least 80% of the simulated sowings of the crop. Simulations of the current and future climate conditions were carried out with the regional climate modelling system version 4 (RegCM4) nested with the HadGEM2 global circulation model with RCP 4.5 IPCC-AR4 scenario. The results show that climate changes are likely to reduce the duration of the optimal period for sowing cowpea in the mentioned region.