Modeling Current and Future Habitat Suitability for the Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) Under Climate Change Scenarios in Nepal

Abstract

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia), a Vulnerable apex predator endemic to the mountainous regions of Central and South Asia. It plays a vital role in maintaining the ecological integrity of high-altitude ecosystems. This study modeled the current and future potential habitat distribution of the snow leopard in Nepal using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). A total of 306 occurrence records were compiled from both primary and secondary sources. Five bioclimatic and four environmental variables were selected to assess their influence on habitat suitability, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to develop distribution models. Results indicate that nearly one fifth of Nepal's total land area is suitable for snow leopards. Most of these suitable habitats lie within the protected areas (PAs). However, a significant portion of suitable habitat in the western landscapes extends into vulnerable, unprotected regions. Among the environmental variables, annual mean temperature and elevation emerged as the most influential predictors. Habitat suitability was highest in areas with lower temperatures (−5°C to 5°C) and within the elevation range of 4000–4500 masl. Climate projections for mid and late century highlight a substantial concentration of moderately and marginally suitable habitats, with particular severe declines under high emission scenarios. While protected areas were found to provide relatively resilient habitats for the snow leopard, areas outside the PAs network are projected to undergo significant habitat contraction. This emphasizes the urgent need for expanded and adaptive conservation strategies. Notably, this study is the first to quantify the disproportionate vulnerability of habitats outside Nepal's protected area system. In the western region, approximately 42.5% of currently suitable habitat is at risk of severe decline under high-emission scenarios. These findings highlight the limitations of existing conservation paradigms and emphasize the need to extend protections beyond established PAs through the creation of ecological corridors and the integration of climate-resilient conservation planning.