Caution with deviant neighbours: Explaining degrees of non-tariff protectionism with spatial analysis

Abstract

This paper deals with protectionist barriers as a risk mitigation method to avoid contaminated or unreliable products. A spatial analysis of introduced defensive measures (namely, technical barriers) has been carried out to determine the characteristics of neighbouring societies that stimulate protectionist reactions from states. This willingness to establish technical barriers against goods was attributed to neighbouring citizens' desire to violate accepted rules and deviate from common standards (including manufacturing). Countries surrounded by nonconformist trade partners considered opening their borders to be hazardous. The abovementioned results were observed in countries with vulnerabilities of different kinds (low GDP PPP per capita, Competitiveness Index, Globalization Index and high state fragility). Contiguity effects have been estimated using unorthodox quantitative methods: by computing Bivariate Moran’s I coefficient and evaluating local indicators of spatial association (LISA methodology). The chosen dependent and independent variables were observed for the period between 2005 and 2019.