The Post 2008 Food Before Fuel Crisis: Theory, Literature, and Policies

Abstract

As early as 1983, research began to appear indicating the potential for biofuel production to emerge as a disruptive force in US and world food sectors (Barnard, 1983). Of particular concern in early and present research is that increased use of agricultural outputs for energy, as opposed to foodstuffs, could ultimately lead to a net welfare loss where the benefits of biofuels are outweighed by the negative consequences linked to reduced food availability. This dilemma emerges due to the direct competition between biofuel and food production for the same renewable and nonrenewable resources critical for their sustainability (Rajagopal and Zilberman, 2007 and von Urff, 2007). In 2007-2008, global food prices experienced a significant upward spike resulting in political and economic instability, conflict, and hardships in both the developed and developing world. Figure 1 illustrates the United Nations FAO monthly food price index and the cereals price index since 2000. As indicated in the figure, in 2006 food prices started to rise with the most rapid increases occurring in 2007 through the middle of 2008 when an equally rapid price decline occurred. Relative to the general food price index, the increase in cereal prices was more pronounced.