Extending participatory fuzzy cognitive mapping with a control nodes methodology: A case study of the development of a biobased economy in the humber region, UK

Abstract

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a widely used participatory modeling methodology in which stakeholders collaboratively develop a cognitive map (a weighted, directed graph), representing the perceived causal structure of their system. FCM can be an extremely useful tool to enable stakeholders to collaboratively represent and consolidate their understanding of the structure of their system. Analysis of an FCM using tools from network theory enables the calculation of “control configurations” for the system; subsets of system factors which if controlled could be used to drive the system to any given state. We have developed a technique that allows us to calculate all possible, minimally-sized control configurations of a stakeholder-generated FCM within a workshop context. In order to evaluate our results in terms of real world “controllability,” stakeholders score all factors on the basis of their ability to influence them, allowing us to rank the configurations by their potential local controllability. This provides a starting point for discussions about effective policy, or other interventions from the specific perspective of regional actors and decision makers. We describe this methodology and report on a participatory process in which it was tested: the construction of an FCM focusing on the development of a bio-based economy in the Humber region (UK) by key stakeholders from local companies and organizations. Results and stakeholder responses are discussed in the context of our case study, but also, more generally, in the context of the use of participatory modeling for decision making in complex socio-ecological-economic systems.