Human Impacts Dominate Global Loss of Lake Ecosystem Resilience

Abstract

Strengthening aquatic resilience to prevent adverse shifts is critical for preserving global freshwater biodiversity and advancing Sustainable Development Goals. Nonetheless, understanding the long-term trends and underlying causes of lake ecosystem resilience at a global scale remains elusive. Here, we employ an innovative framework, integrating satellite-derived water quality indices with early warning signals and machine learning techniques, to investigate the dynamics of resilience in 1,049 lakes worldwide during 2000–2018. Our results indicate that 46.7% of lakes are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, particularly since the early 2010s, closely associated with higher human population density and anthropogenic eutrophication. In contrast, most lakes situated in alpine regions exhibit an increase in resilience, probably benefiting from climate warming and wetting. Together, this study provides a novel way to monitor lake resilience and predict undesired transitions, and reveals a widespread erosion in the ability of lakes to withstand stressors associated with global change.