Forecasting Algal Bloom Lags and Stability in a Watershed

Abstract

Near Menomonie, Wisconsin the lakes suffer from algae blooms during the warm 5 summer months. Mathematical models describing the cyanobacteria population dynamics are studied 6 with the intent of analyzing the conditions under which the populations grow and stabilize. Two 7 models are considered, one for forecasting the population as the lake turns toxic from excess biomass 8 after a flushing event occurs, and the other for estabilishing an algal bloom stability condition. These 9 models are proposed for consideration to test the effectiveness of solutions put forth to ameliorate 10 the algal bloom problem. 11