Using counterfactuals from macroeconomic models to assess risks to accomplishment of structural innovations

Abstract

A macroeconomic model often described as an input-output model, is specified mathematically to characterize production and consumption in an economy. Perturbations of attributes this macroeconomic model allow the examination of counterfactuals-hypothetical scenarios that run "counter to the facts" of an existing reality-to assess risks to accomplishments of structural innovations in light of plausible endogenous or exogenous shocks to the economy.