The impact of fisher's risk perception on fishery outcomes in an end-to-end ecosystem model

Abstract

Over the past three decades increasingly complex fisheries models that link biological and physical information to resource user decisions have been developed to anticipate the effects of changing government policies. The predictive accuracy of so called end-to-end models appears to depend on a solid understanding of the underlying processes and feedback systems, within and between the biological, physical and human domains. Many fisher decisions are modelled in the human component of these fisheries models including risk. Empirical evidence suggests that fisher decision making under risk does not follow rational choice behaviour theory. Instead, fisher risk profiles have been incorporated into fisheries models to account for this. However, the contribution of risk profiles and risk related exploratory fisher behaviour on fisheries management outcomes in end-to-end models has not been explored in detail. In this current study we unpack an end-to-end ecosystem system model and assess appropriateness and effect of using fisher responsiveness to information as the basis of fisher risk profiles. For the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark fishery and its five largest fleets, we investigate if, in accordance with theoretical assumptions and empirical evidence, risk seeking (averse) behaviour pays off in terms of higher (lower) catches while incurring higher (lower) variability. Our analysis shows that the interpretation is not straightforward and the relationship between payoff and risk profile has to be considered in the context of three main fleet characteristics: whether the fleet is profitable; how diversified the fleet is; and whether the target species biomass is growing or in decline. Moreover, if the object of the fisher's choice is to minimise income variability there is no significant difference between risk averse and risk seeking fishers.