Case-fatality and disability in the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project cohort

Abstract

Objectives: The burden of stroke on healthcare services in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is increasing. However, long-term outcomes from stroke in SSA are not well described. We aimed to investigate case-fatality and health outcomes for stroke survivors at 7- to 10-year follow-up. Materials and methods: The Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project (TSIP) recruited incidence stroke cases between 2003 and 2006. We followed up cases in 2013, recording date of death in those who had died. Results: Of 130 stroke cases included in this study, case-fatality and date of death data were available for 124 at 7-10 years post-stroke. Of these, 102 (82.3%) had died by 7 years post-stroke. Functional disability, as measured by the Barthel index immediately post-stroke, was a significant predictor of case-fatality at seven-year follow-up with those with severe disability having an almost four-fold increase in the odds of death compared with those with no, mild or moderate disability. Conclusions: Case-fatality rates are higher than reported in high-income countries, with post-stroke disability a significant predictor of death. Sustainable interventions to reduce post-stroke disability in this setting should be investigated.