How Thierry Baudet Stole Geert Wilders' Votes: A Discourse Historical Analysis of Baudet's 2019 Provincial Elections Victory Speech.

Abstract

Thierry Baudet's remarkable success at the 2019 Dutch provincial elections was difficult to comprehend given the hitherto increasing popularity of the long-term dominant figure in Dutch far-right politics, Geert Wilders. Although both politicians preside over strikingly similar policy agendas, Wilders' supporters appeared to abandon him in favour of Baudet. This study attempted to investigate why Dutch far-right voters may have shifted their allegiance from Wilders's Partij Voor de Vrijheid to Baudet's Forum voor Democratie through a Discourse Historical Analysis of Baudet's provincial elections victory speech and a corpus of Wilders' discursive texts. Prior to commencing this analysis, the study's methodological approach for addressing such a complex topic was justified by means ofdemonstrating the close interrelationship between context, discourse and political strategy. The analysis discovered that Baudet distinguishes himself by constructing a less repressive guise for his party through careful characterisation of the Dutch identity rather than demonising the cultural enemy like Wilders and other leaders of the new right.