Key to ENSO phase-locking simulation: effects of sea surface temperature diurnal amplitude

Abstract

The tendency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to peak during boreal winter is known as ENSO phase-locking, whose accurate simulation is essential for ENSO prediction. However, the simulated peaks of ENSO events usually occur outside boreal winter in state-of-the-art climate models. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the model with a more reasonable diurnal amplitude (DA) in the sea surface temperature (SST) had a better simulation ability for ENSO phase-locking compared with other models. Further experiments based on the earth system model revealed that the DA is vital for ENSO phase-locking simulation primarily due to the spatial inhomogeneities in seasonal DA anomaly variations in ENSO years with positive/negative DA anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific and negative/positive in the western or eastern Pacific during El Niño/La Niña. Our findings indicate that DA simulation in climate models is crucial for resolving the long-standing failure associated with the ENSO phase-locking simulation accuracy.