Analysis of cooling and heating degree days over mexico in present and future climate

Abstract

One simple way to estimate the relationship between air temperature and the energy needed for heating and cooling is to use the concept of degree day. Cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) are indicators of the energy required to reach comfort levels and are related directly to energy demands. Therefore, using a novel approach, we examine the current conditions and future projections in degree days over Mexico using observations (Livneh and CPC), ERA5 reanalysis, and simulations from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 experiments were driven by different General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. We consider three 20-year periods as “present conditions” (1995–2014), “near-future conditions” (2041–2060), and “far-future conditions” (2080–2099). The results suggest that in the future, under the lowest radiative forcing scenario there will be a smaller increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, as compared to the near-future. This could represent the model’s response to the peak of radiative forcing at mid-century and its subsequent decline. For the highest radiative forcing scenario, we found a greater increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, which could be explained by the response of the RegCM4 to the warming increase projected for 2100.