Declining female labor supply elasticities in the United States and implications for tax policy: Evidence from panel data

Abstract

Recent work has provided compelling evidence of a long-term decline in U.S. female labor supply elasticities with respect to wages and income. While previous work used cross-sectional data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we reexamine the trend for married women using panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1980 to 2006. We find evidence in support of a long-term decline in married females’ labor supply elasticities on the participation margin but less evidence in support of such a decline on the hours margin. We also investigate the implications of these results for the welfare effects of tax reforms. Policy simulations indicate that shrinking elasticities, mostly concentrated on the participation margin, have contributed to a dramatic decline in the welfare gains from actual and potential tax reforms since the 1980s.