Hydrological modeling combined with climate change, land use and occupation

Abstract

Understand the hydrological behavior of basins is complex, however, the hydrological models are tools whose objective is to represent the hydrological cycle in large areas. A tool that has been helping in the development of large-scale hydrological models is the use of Geographic Information Systems, in which it assists in the analysis of soil, cover and relief, aiming at a more complete understanding of the watershed processes. In this study, the Large Basin Model of the Hydraulic Research Institute was applied in the Alto Taquari basin, and aimed to calibrate the hydrological model, and later, to test combinations of future scenarios of climate change and land use and occupation and in order to detect changes in hydrological variables. The result of the calibration was acceptable, with the Nash-Sutcliffe value of 0.64 in the basin outlet and the projection simulations indicated the decrease in the average monthly flow for most of the scenarios, making possible tracing trends for better decision making regarding the management of the hydrographic basin.