Economic growth and carbon emission in China: a spatial econometric Kuznets curve?

Abstract

Economic development has largely contributed to the increment of CO2 emission. This study uses spatial econometric models to investigate the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission in China with data of 30 provinces of China during the period of 2000 to 2012. Results show that the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth in China during the recent decade has the development tendency toward an inverse U-shaped curve, approximately confirming the carbon emission's Kuznets curve hypothesis in China. There exists a significant spatial correlation between carbon emission and economic growth, implying that carbon emission in a province may be influenced by economic growth in adjacent provinces. When economic growth reaches 279.91 million Yuan/km(2) GDP (at a comparable price in 2000), the contradiction between economic growth and carbon emission begins to be gradually alleviated. These findings provide new insights and valuable information for reducing carbon emissions in China.