Global mean surface air temperature and North Atlantic overturning in a suite of coupled GCM climate change experiments

Abstract

The effects of model initial conditions and the starting time of transient radiative forcings on global mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) are studied in a set of coupled climate GCM experiments. Nine climate change scenario experiments, in which the effective levels of greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols vary in time, are initialized from various points in a long control model run. The time at which the transition from constant to transient radiative forcing takes place is varied in the scenario runs, occurring at points representing either year 1766, 1866 or 1916. The sensitivity of projected 21st century global mean SATs and the THC to the choice of radiative forcing transition point is small, and is similar in magnitude to the variability arising from variations in the coupled GCM's initial three-dimensional state.