Application of Fuzzy Risk Allocation Decision Model for Improving the Nigerian Public–Private Partnership Mass Housing Project Procurement

Abstract

Public–Private Partnership (PPP) procurement is a relatively new approach in Nigeria’s housing sector. This study introduces a Fuzzy Risk Allocation Decision Model (FRADM) designed to address the complex and subjective nature of risk allocation in PPP-procured Mass Housing Projects (MHPs). A structured quantitative approach involving 40 purposively selected PPP housing experts was employed. Using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) technique, critical risk factors were assessed based on partners’ risk management capabilities and allocation criteria. Constants (Ci) normalized the risk-carrying capacity indices (RCCIs) of both public and private sectors. Results show that risk attitude ranks highest among nine allocation criteria (MIS = 6.21), with the private sector demonstrating higher overall risk management capability. For instance, the availability of finance risk is optimally shared 53.48% to the private and 46.52% to the public sector. The FRADM was validated as reliable, practical, and replicable. Implications point to enhanced transparency, equitable risk-sharing, and support for SDG 11. The model is a strategic tool for decision-makers in PPP housing delivery in Nigeria and can inform similar efforts in other emerging economies. Further research should examine applications across other infrastructure sectors.