Nomogram to predict non-home discharge following pancreaticoduodenectomy in a national cohort of patients

Abstract

Background Despite the development of pathways to enhance recovery and discharge to home, a significant proportion of patients are discharged to inpatient facilities after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). The aim of this study was to determine the rate of non-home discharge (NHD) following PD in a national cohort of patients and to develop predictive nomograms for NHD. Methods The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to construct and validate pre- and postoperative nomograms for NHD following PD. Results A total of 6856 patients who underwent PD were identified, of which 927 (13.5%) had an NHD. The independent preoperative predictors of NHD were being female, older age, higher BMI, low serum albumin, >10% weight loss, ASA class III/IV, and being diagnosed with a bile duct/ampullary neoplasm or neuroendocrine tumor. A preoperative nomogram was constructed with a concordance index of 0.77. When postoperative variables were added to the model, the concordance index increased to 0.82. The postoperative predictors of NHD were return to the operating room, length of stay of ≥14 days, and any inpatient complications. Conclusions These nomograms could be useful risk assessment tools to predict NHD after PD and therefore facilitate patient counseling and improve resource utilization and discharge planning.