Marine Ice Cliff Instability Mitigated by Slow Removal of Ice Shelves

Abstract

The accelerated calving of ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic Ice Sheet may form unstable ice cliffs. The marine ice cliff instability hypothesis posits that cliffs taller than a critical height (~90 m) will undergo structural collapse, initiating runaway retreat in ice-sheet models. This critical height is based on inferences from preexisting, static ice cliffs. Here we show how the critical height increases with the timescale of ice-shelf collapse. We model failure mechanisms within an ice cliff deforming after removal of ice-shelf buttressing stresses. If removal occurs rapidly, the cliff deforms primarily elastically and fails through tensile-brittle fracture, even at relatively small cliff heights. As the ice-shelf removal timescale increases, viscous relaxation dominates, and the critical height increases to ~540 m for timescales greater than days. A 90-m critical height implies ice-shelf removal in under an hour. Incorporation of ice-shelf collapse timescales in prognostic ice-sheet models will mitigate the marine ice cliff instability, implying less ice mass loss.