Predicting the Potential Suitable Area of the Invasive Ant Linepithema humile in China under Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt

Abstract

Linepithema humile (Mayr, 1868) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is one of “100 of the world’s worst invasive alien species” listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Although native to South America, this ant has spread worldwide via international trade. Currently, L. humile has not been found in China, and if it invades China, it might pose a potential risk to the native invertebrates, vertebrates, plants, and human livelihoods. Based on 2432 global occurrence records and ten bioclimatic variables, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable areas of L. humile in China. We analyzed the important bioclimatic variables affecting the potential suitable areas, and determined the changes in potential suitable areas under future climatic scenarios. Our results indicated that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) were the most important bioclimatic variables. Under the current climatic scenarios, the potential suitable area of L. humile in China is 80.31 × 104 km2, which is mainly located in Fujian, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Hubei. Under future climate scenarios over coming decades, the potential suitable areas of L. humile showed an overall increase and a shift to higher latitudes, which indicated the invasion risk of L. humile in China will increase under climate change. Our findings provide the theoretical guidance for the early warning and monitoring of L. humile in China.