An Integrated Entropy–MAIRCA Approach for Multi-Dimensional Strategic Classification of Agricultural Development in East Africa

Abstract

Agricultural development is vital for East Africa’s economic growth, yet the region faces significant disparities and systemic barriers. A critical problem exists due to the lack of an integrated quantitative framework to systematically comparing agricultural capacities and facilitate optimal resource allocation, as existing studies often overlook combined internal and external factors. This study proposes a comprehensive multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model to assess, categorize, and strategically profile the agricultural development capacity of 18 East African countries. The method employed is an integrated Entropy-MAIRCA model, which objectively weighs six criteria (the food production index, arable land, production fluctuation, food export/import ratios, and the political stability index) and ranks countries by their distance from an ideal development state. The experiment applied this framework to 18 East African nations using official data. The results revealed significant differences, forming four distinct strategic groups: frontier, emerging, trade-dependent, and high risk. The food export index (C4) and production volatility (C3) were identified as the most influential criteria. This model’s contribution is providing a science-based, transparent decision support tool for designing sustainable agricultural policies, aiding investment planning, and promoting regional cooperation, while emphasizing the crucial role of institutional factors.