Unravelling Myths: A Difference-In-Differences Analysis of Post-Vaccination Mortality in Italy During COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to numerous conspiracy theories, focusing on topics such as vaccine effectiveness, the virus’s origin and public health measures. These narratives have spread rapidly through social and traditional media, influencing public perception and behaviour towards vaccination efforts. In particular, they have contributed significantly to vaccine hesitancy. This study focuses on Italy, where narratives linking COVID-19 vaccinations to sudden deaths have gained significant traction. By conducting a thorough investigation into post-vaccination mortality rates, this study aims to shed light on the true nature of the data regarding deaths and mortality rates in Italy. The study uses a Difference-In-Differences (DID) framework to analyse post-vaccination mortality rates across Italian municipalities from 2018 to 2023. Results indicate that the overall mortality rate did not significantly increase following the vaccination campaign, and the impact varied across different demographic groups and regions, indicating disparities in healthcare delivery, public health strategies and demographic factors between the North and the South. This study contributes innovatively by providing empirical evidence from Italy, addressing a critical gap in understanding the relationship between vaccination and public health outcomes.