Vulnerability of Java Southern Sea marine energy potential to climate change and climate variability

Abstract

The development of marine energy as one of the energy transition options in Indonesia faces many technical and non-technical challenges. Marine energy that utilizes waves, ocean currents, and potential temperature differences heavily depends on natural conditions that are rather difficult to predict. Global climate change affects the movement of oceans and changes the physical parameters of the oceans (such as sea surface height, wavelength, wind, and temperature). By utilizing the climate data from 1993-2023, the result shows the increase in sea level temperature, level up sea level and ocean wave movement in the southern sea of Java. Besides, monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as climate variability, also contribute to the fluctuation of marine energy potential. This study identifies that the southern sea of Java Island, namely in the location of 3 (three) Coal-Fired Power Plants (Pelabuhan Ratu CFPP, Adipala CFPP, and Pacitan CFPP) has significant potential for wave energy, ocean currents, and Ocean Thermal Energy Conservation (OTEC), this potential is correlated either positively or negatively with the climate variability that occurs. The conclusion of this study emphasizes the importance of climate data integration in the planning and development of marine energy infrastructure in Indonesia to ensure sustainability and energy resilience in the future.