South Korea’s Ominous Missile Deployments

Abstract

By placing more than 300 fixed, short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles on permanent alert at several above-ground sites close to the Demilitarised Zone, South Korean Strategic Command has significantly departed from standard practice and apparently traded survivability for immediacy. The sites are clustered, exposed and soft, the launchers are not mobile and the missiles are highly accurate, carrying a shaped charge capable of penetrating 1.5 metres of concrete. Based on visual analysis, little or no effort has been expended to make the launch sites survivable in a conflict involving nuclear weapons. These characteristics suggest that the missiles’ principal value lies in how quickly they can deliver a pre-emptive strike on North Korean military and leadership targets. They introduce significant instability to the Korean Peninsula by giving both South Korea and North Korea strong incentives to attack first in a crisis.