Distributions and Trends of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect in the 21st Century: Aerosol and Environmental Contributions

Abstract

The aerosol direct radiative effect (ADRE) is controlled by both aerosol distributions and environmental factors, making it interesting and important to quantitatively assess their effects on the ADRE inhomogeneity and climate trends. By analyzing the ADRE in the 21st century from a global reanalysis data set, we find that the spatial variability of the ADRE and its trends can be well explained by a linear regression model. In this model, scattering and absorbing aerosol optical depths (AODs) are used, along with critical environmental variables such as surface albedo and cloud radiative effect, as predictors. Based on this model, we find that approximately 70% of the ADRE inhomogeneity is due to the AOD distributions and the remainder is attributable to environmental factors. This study also shows that a stronger cooling effect of the scattering aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere drives northward cross-equator meridional energy transport, although this transport exhibits a declining trend over the last two decades. The changes in surface albedo and cloud radiative effect strongly influence the trends in the regional ADRE and the meridional energy transport driven by them. In particular, the reduction of surface albedo (sea ice) is primarily responsible for the enhancement of the cooling ADRE, as well as an associated trend in meridional energy transport, in the Arctic.