Combined Generalized Hubbert-Bass Model Approach to Include Disruptions When Predicting Future Oil Production

Abstract

In a previous study [1] the authors had developed a methodology for predicting global oil production. Briefly, the model accounted for disruptions in production by utilising a series of Hubbert curves in combination with a polynomial smoothing function. Whilst the model was able to produce predictions for future oil production, the methodology was complex in its implementation and not easily applied to future disruptions. In this study a Generalized Bass model approach is incorporated with the Hubbert linearization technique that overcomes these limitations and is consistent with our previous predictions.