A model of German spot power market

Abstract

This paper aims to model the day-ahead prices on the German EPEX SPOT exchange during the year 2011 using a fundamental mixed-integer programming model with focus on the changes in the volatility of prices. A model of the German market is built from publicly available data. Various constraints on the supply side such as operational characteristics of power plants are described, characterized and ultimately formulated as constraints of a cost-minimization problem. Unknown power plant characteristics are estimated by expert opinions or are inferred indirectly from other data. Several scenarios testing the impact of constraints and modelling approaches are analysed. In addition, a future scenario simulating the year 2016 is used to forecast price developments under the ongoing massive renewable energy growth. Finally, results are discussed with respect to price forecasting accuracy with a focus on the changes in the volatility of prices.