The causes and consequences of public misperceptions about the origins of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Abstract

In this paper, we examine (1) how effective Russia’s propaganda is at legitimizing its military operation in Ukraine, (2) how effectively U.S. political elites can ‘fact-check’ the conflict justifications provided by the Russian government, and (3) how exposure to false claims influences public support for various U.S. responses. Our data analysis is based on two survey experiments. Survey 1 took place on February 24, 2022 (i.e., immediately after the beginning of Russia’s invasion). Survey 2 was conducted in February 2024. In both surveys, we randomized exposure to Russian misinformation and fact-checks by U.S. elites. We found that some (but not all) forms of misinformation have the potential to reduce support for sanctions against Russia as well as military aid for Ukraine. More specifically, our data suggest that false claims that are emotionally highly evocative are particularly likely to influence foreign policy preferences.