Predicting the seasonal shift in mosquito populations preceding the onset of the West Nile virus in central Illinois

Abstract

The peak in WNV infection rate is preceded by a seasonal shift in the Cx. restuans a n d Cx. pipiens populations in the midwestern United States (Lampman et al. 2006). Models predicting this seasonal shift in population have been run operationally at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center since 2004. In 2009, the models were modified to incorporate NWS MOS 10-day temperature forecasts. This paper evaluated the effectiveness and lead time of these models to predict the crossover date when the proportion of Cx. pipiens becomes equal to or greater than that of the Cx. restuans.