Random walk null models for time series data

Abstract

Permutation entropy has become a standard tool for time series analysis that exploits the temporal and ordinal relationships within data. Motivated by a Kullback-Leibler divergence interpretation of permutation entropy as divergence from white noise, we extend pattern-based methods to the setting of random walk data. We analyze random walk null models for correlated time series and describe a method for determining the corresponding ordinal pattern distributions. These null models more accurately reflect the observed pattern distributions in some economic data. This leads us to define a measure of complexity using the deviation of a time series from an associated random walk null model. We demonstrate the applicability of our methods using empirical data drawn from a variety of fields, including to a variety of stock market closing prices.