Bjerknes Memorial Lecture: The Development and Status of Modern Weather Prediction

Abstract

The progress made in weather prediction since national weather services began issuing forecasts is traced and assessed. Specific contributions of J. Bjerknes to this program are pointed out. Lessons learned from the historical record concerning factors and conditions responsible for the important advances are considered, and a limited evaluation is then made of the increase in forecast skill that resulted from these advances. Finally, some comments are offered on the future prospects of weather prediction.