Quantifying timber illegality risk in the Brazilian forest frontier

Abstract

Illegal logging remains widespread across the tropics, leading to extensive forest degradation and trade in illegal timber products. By adapting environmentally extended input–output modelling to timber originating from Brazilian native forests, we demonstrate how distinct illegality risks can be mapped and quantified at species-level across the supply chain. We focus on high-value ipê hardwood from the Amazon state of Pará, a leading producer of timber and contested forest frontier. Data on logging permits and state- and national-level Document of Forest Origin licences are used to estimate illegality risks due to missing or invalid logging permits, overstated ipê yields or discrepancies resulting from missing inflows of legal timber. We find that less than a quarter of all ipê entering supply chains between 2009 and 2019 is risk-free and highlight diversified strategies for the laundering of illegal timber across geographies. While legality does not ensure sustainability, this information can be leveraged to this end by supporting improved implementation and enforcement of forest regulations.