Projections of Agro-climatic Suitability of Arabica Coffee Plants Based on Climate Scenarios in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract

The close relationship between climate and coffee plants requires the right steps in planning and developing coffee plants. This study aims to determine the distribution of suitability areas for Arabica coffee plantsin the future based on the projected results of the RCP8.5 scenario for the periods 2021-2050 and 2051-2080 in South Sulawesi, which are used as recommendations in the development of Arabica coffee plants in the South Sulawesi. The data used is observational data on monthly average rainfall and air temperature for the 1989-2018 period. The projection data used is data from the CORDEX-SEA ensemble, the CSIRO model with a resolution of 25x25 km for the RCP8.5 scenario for the 2021-2080 period. The projection period is divided into two periods for each scenario. Agro-climate suitability for Arabica coffee plants is made based on the total weight of the parameters used. The results showed a decrease in the quality of agro-climate suitability in the projection period for Arabica coffee plants in South Sulawesi. This can be seen from the shrinking area of land classified as very suitable (S1) in the projection period compared to the baseline period. The percentage of land area for S1 for the baseline period is 44%, then it has shrunk in the projected RCP8.5 scenario for the 2021-2050 period to 27%. The results of the projection of the RCP8.5 scenario for the 2051-2080 period experienced a significant reduction in the percentage of classified land area compared to the baseline period is 5%.