Statistical Analysis of Offshore Wind and other VRE Generation to Estimate the Variability in Future Residual Load

Abstract

The growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, which are driven by weather patterns, can cause challenges to the operation and planning of power systems. This paper studies the variability in wind and solar photovoltaic generation in Nordic and Baltic countries. Combined with load time series, the resulting residual load is analysed in 2030 and 2050 scenarios. The correlations between load and VRE generation are studied, and it is shown that a modified 2050 scenario with higher offshore wind and solar generation share shows lower relative residual load variability compared to the 2050 base scenario. The reduction in variability is specifically significant in residual load ramp rates.