Successful Unstable Industrialization of the World: 1880–1913—Lessons for Modernity (Reflections on the Book by Leonid Grigoriev and Alexandra Morozkina)

Abstract

Leonid Grigoriev and Alexandra Morozkina book is extremely relevant, because now, as in 1880–1913, there is a rapid increase in inequality. An important conclusion is that a revolutionary explosion was not inevitable and would not have occurred if there had not been a world war. Growth rates were limited by the insufficient breadth of domestic markets and slow growth in labor productivity due to a lack of human capital. Marxism, according to the authors, reflected the nature of society in the middle of the 19th century, but from about the 1870s. inequality and absolute poverty began to become different problems. Industrialization at the expense of the peasantry, which took place in Russia, which developed contrary to theories, should not be interpreted as an unequivocal evil, especially since similar phenomena were observed in other countries. The prevailing ideas about Germany’s motives in unleashing the First World War are called into question on the base of economic analysis (“steel doesn’t lie”). The Germany was extremely concerned about the change in the balance of power in favor of the United States and Russia. The authors concluded that there was no convergence in the development of the countries under consideration in 1880–1913. In their opinion, successful catch-up development is a rather rare success. At the same time, the recipe for success has always turned out to be individual and unsuitable for replication. The separation of the colonies from the former mother countries has not diminished in the last century. Reflections on the book lead to the conclusion that Russia in the 21st century has an opportunity for longer than other countries to maintain the dynamism of development in a world that has passed to stationarity thanks to the development of Siberia.