The long-term dynamics of ride-hailing adoption and inequality

Abstract

Ride-hailing services have become a central component of urban mobility, raising questions about equity, sustainability, and long-term adoption dynamics. While prior research has established that use is concentrated among younger, educated, and higher-income populations, most studies rely on short observation periods, leaving uncertainty about how usage patterns evolve as markets mature. Using seven years of complete ride-hailing trip records from Santiago, Chile (2017–2023), totaling 4.4 million rides, this paper studies: (i) whether adoption trajectories differ systematically across neighborhoods by sociodemographic characteristics, (ii) whether inequality in usage has grown or diminished as the market matured, and (iii) whether lower-adoption areas are catching up over time. We combine trip-level information with demographic and spatial variables to answer these questions, applying trajectory clustering, inequality measures, and convergence models. We find that ride-hailing initially concentrated in affluent districts but has gradually expanded toward peripheral and lower-income communities. Despite this diffusion, convergence has been modest, with persistent socioeconomic disparities slowing the pace of equalization, indicating that inequality continues to play a central role in ride-hailing use.