A Nomogram to Predict Critical Weight Loss in Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma During (Chemo) Radiotherapy

Abstract

Background: Weight loss is an important side effect of long-term anticancer treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. The decline in body function will cause many adverse effects, such as local recurrence and distant metastasis, and reduce the patient’s quality of life. Therefore, this study developed a predictive model for the probability of critical weight loss to provide timely appropriate nutritional interventions and prevent serious side effects. Methods: A 20-week prospective follow-up study of 137 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients in West China Hospital of Sichuan University undergoing radiotherapy and chemotherapy from February 2018 to March 2020 was conducted to collect relevant clinical data. The clinical usefulness and calibration of the prediction model were assessed using the C-index, calibration plot, receiver operating curve, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was assessed using bootstrapping validation. Results: The nomogram consisted of sex, smoking status, physical status, chemotherapy regimen, and body mass index. Good calibration was observed for the cohort, with an area under the curve of 0.924. Five independent prognostic factors were included in the nomogram, which showed a high C-index value of 0.815 in the interval validation. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful when the intervention was decided at the critical weight loss possibility threshold in the 0% to 97% range. Conclusions: We constructed and validated a nomogram for predicting the incidence of critical weight loss in nasopharyngeal cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy and radiotherapy.