Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA

Abstract

This study introduces a new modeling paradigm called gravity-networked spatial interaction zones-based spatial panel modeling (GSIZs-Spanel). Using Detroit as a case study, this paper investigates urban shrinkage by integrating shrinkage driving factors, their regional interactions, networks of cities, spatial processes, and longitudinal dynamics. Results suggest that high minority population concentration and persistent poverty are the primary factors impacting Detroit’s inner-city shrinkage. Demographics, economics, and development practices affect shrinkage in suburbs and surrounding cities. Shrinkage spreads outwards like waves; different juxtapositions of driving factors affect shrinkage resilience; spillover effects are particularly vibrant at 25–50 GSIZs; rightsizing is a rational strategy, but it failed to work alone. Integrating spatial planning of driving factors, land uses, spillover effects, rightsizing strategy, and regional collaboration among federal, regional, and local organizations could moderate urban decline. GSIZs-Spanel, which was developed here, could be applied in any U.S. city or other global city.