Causal Relationship between Agricultural Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence for India

Abstract

In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between agricultural exports and real exchange rate in India employing linear and nonlinear causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using annual index of the quantity of agricultural exports in India and real US Dollar to Rupee exchange rate data which cover the period between 1961 and 2013. We find that there are no significant changes in the linear and nonlinear causal relations between agricultural exports and exchange rates over the sample period under investigation. However, our investigation does not provide any evidence of bidirectional or unidirectional causality between the agricultural exports to real exchange rate in India. It can be concluded that one of the key reasons for high levels of the quantity of agricultural exports in India is long-term economic growth, rather than the real value of Indian Rupee.