The War Against Iran

Abstract

The war against Iran is the continuation of the June 2025 12-day bombings in which Israel and the United States destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear assets and air defences. The outcome was strategically inconclusive. The diplomacy that followed was futile: Iran would not offer the nuclear capitulation the US demanded, and Israel was eager to strike. Iran’s system has proven more resilient and tolerant of pain than the Trump administration expected. Although supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, his son Mojtaba was expeditiously chosen to replace him. Iran is undeniably weakened and cannot re-emerge as a conventional power in the next decade. But the war has validated the Gulf Arab states’ concerns about their exposure, the United States’ capacity to defend them, the risks of protracted instability and the perils of an unconstrained Israel. The Middle East must now contain a weakened, militarised, angry Iranian regime willing to disrupt regional geo-economic and geopolitical relationships.