Effects of Economic Growth, Food Price Inflation and Population Explosion on Food Consumption Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of economic growth, food price inflation, and population growth on GHG emissions from household food consumption by employing panel data from 170 countries. For empirical analysis, the study employs a two-way fixed effects model and a system GMM estimator. The results reveal that real per capita income has a significant positive impact on food consumption-related GHG emissions, whereas the square of real per capita income has a significant negative impact. This suggests the presence of a threshold beyond which further income growth reduces GHG emissions, this supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. However, the EKC hypothesis holds for high-income countries but not for low-income countries. Moreover, as food prices rise, GHG emissions from household food consumption also increase. Likewise, population growth leads to higher GHG emissions from household food consumption, with similar results observed in both low and high-income countries. These findings align with the Ehrlich–Commoner theory. Furthermore, the study identifies specific consumption patterns that influence GHG emissions. Per capita consumption of rice and fish mitigates emissions, while increased consumption of wheat, sugar, pulses, fruits, and meat exacerbates them. Finally, the choice of cooking fuel significantly impacts GHG emissions. Solid fuels such as coal and charcoal increase emissions, while gaseous fuels like natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) reduce them. However, opposite trends are observed in low and high-income countries. These findings underscore the urgent need for emission reduction strategies in food consumption at both national and global levels.