Coligações eleitorais e fragmentação das bancadas parlamentares no Brasil: Simulações a partir das eleições de 2014

Abstract

The article discusses the impact of electoral coalitions in the fragmentation of parliamentary caucuses in the Brazilian House of Representatives and makes simulations on the results of 2014 election, using alternative rules to the distribution of seats. The simulation reveals that, without coalitions, both the number of parties represented in the House and the Rae fractionalization index would fall 21%. Although the simulation has limitations, since the change in the rules would also change the strategies of political agents, it is demonstrated that the veto to coalitions would reduce the dispersion of parliamentary seats, without leading to the adoption of arbitrary measures (such as the introduction of an exclusion clause). On the contrary, the ban on coalitions would help to bring the electoral system to the logic presiding over proportional representation.