Reflections on the Past, Present, and Future of Quantitative Plant Disease Epidemiology

Abstract

The birth of modern plant disease epidemiology can be traced back to 1963, coinciding with the first international gathering of epidemiologists and the publication of Vanderplank's landmark treatise, Plant Diseases: Epidemics and Control. Over the past six decades, the field has evolved in numerous ways, with ever-increasing use of mathematics, statistics, and computational methods, although many of the epidemiological principles expounded by Vanderplank remain valid. Two broad subdivisions can be seen in quantitative epidemiology: (a) theoretical and semiempirical modeling of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal dynamics of disease and (b) prediction or forecasting of epidemics (or disease outbreaks, or the need for control interventions) on a real-time basis based on environmental (and other) data, usually using empirical models. Progress in both subdisciplines has been tied to new developments in the field of statistics and computer hardware and software as well as to advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence. This article provides reflections on some of the major developments in the field over the past 60+ years.