Establishment of a novel risk score for in-hospital mortality in adult sepsis patients

Abstract

Background: Existing scoring systems have limitations in predicting the in-hospital mortality of adult sepsis patients. We aimed to develop and validate a novel risk score for predicting the in-hospital mortality of adult sepsis patients.Methods: The clinical data of 1,335 adult sepsis inpatients were retrospectively analyzed. Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a modeling group and a validation group at a 3:2 ratio. The modeling group (n=801) was used to develop the risk score by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The score's performance was validated in the validation group (n=534). We classified patients into four risk levels according to the novel risk score.Results: Age, central vein catheterization, mechanical ventilation, vasopressin, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), respiratory rate (RR), heart rate (HR), Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, platelet (PLT), hematocrit (HCT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and activated partial thrombin time (APTT) were independent risk factors for in-hospital death in adult sepsis patients. Continuous variables were converted into classified variables to develop the risk score, with a total score of 39 points. Adult sepsis patients with low, lower medium, higher medium, and high risk levels had in-hospital mortality rates of 9.8%, 24.7%, 55.8%, and 83.5%, respectively. Conclusions: Compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation scoring system (APACHE II) and the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), the novel risk score showed good predictive performance for in-hospital mortality in adult sepsis patients.