Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Produksi, Konsumsi dan Harga Beras serta Inflasi Bahan Makanan

Abstract

Rice price policy is one of the important instruments in order to create national food security. The aims of this research are to analyze the impact of factors on production and consumption of rice, also the change of domestic rice price and food index. The secondary data, especially from BPS, Department of Agriculture and Bulog, is analyzed in quantitative way using econometrics model. The government’s basis paddy price policy, which was determined by Inpres No. 9, 2002 can’t be implemented effectively because government doesn’t maintain the compatible supporting policy. Factors that influence the paddy production are last year paddy harvest area, rice import, price of urea-based fertilizer, real exchange value, and domestic rice price. Factors that influence the rice consumption are numbers of population, domestic rice price, last year rice import, domestic corn price and real exchange value. Factors that influence the domestic rice price are real exchange value, domestic corn price and basic rice price. In the mean time, factors that influence inflation, which is represented by the price changing of food index are the domestic rice price, real exchange value, excess demand of rice, basic rice price, world rice price and paddy total production. Low rice price policy is not suggested because in fact can’t push industrial sector to compete in the world market. Policy of domestic paddy/rice price stability, which is oriented on increasing farmer’s income, is the package of policy needed by farmer nowadays